Sudtirol vs Modena Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.54
Draw
2.87
Away Win
2.45
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Sudtirol
Modena
Fabio Rispoli 🟨
22'
Alvin Okoro (Salvatore Molina) ⚽
35'
Simone Tronchin 🟨
63'
Giacomo Stabile 🟨
72'
88'
⚽ Giuseppe Ambrosino (Daniel Tonoli)
90+2'
🟨 Daniel Tonoli
Match Statistics ?
32%
Ball Possession
68%
11
Total Shots
18
3
Shots on Goal
8
5
Corner Kicks
8
15
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
7
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Sudtirol (3-4-2-1)
A. Plizzari
R. Stivanello
A. Giorgini
G. Stabile
S. Molina
Fabio Rispoli
S. Tronchin
B. Bjarkason
Vasco Lopes
Kevin Zeroli
A. Okoro
Modena (4-3-3)
L. Chichizola
D. Tonoli
S. Nador
B. Nieling
F. Zampano
S. Santoro
G. Brugman
A. Bianco
G. Olzer
G. Ambrosino
G. Caso
Player Ratings ?
Sudtirol
A. PlizzariG8.8
A. OkoroF7.9
S. MolinaM7.7
Modena
G. AmbrosinoF8.2
D. TonoliD7.1
B. NielingD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sudtirol edge head-to-head, Modena edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Modena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sudtirol slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Modena have picked up two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Sudtirol sit on two victories and two draws in their corresponding home sample. At home, Sudtirol have found the net in three of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Modena rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form, while Sudtirol hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 11 April 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Modena
Modena's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Modena win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sudtirol win
Latest market chance 28.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.8% → 28.5%
−3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 32.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.4% → 32.2%
−0.2 pts
Modena win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
35.8% → 39.3%
+3.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sudtirol
Draw
Modena
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SudtirolModena

Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
6th
3
Games Played
3
2.33
Points/Game
2.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.67
0.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
9.4
Shots/Game
21.2
3.2
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Sudtirol at home (3 matches) vs Modena away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
2.33
1.33
Goals/Game
2.00
0.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
67%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Sudtirol
Home form
L
D
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Modena
Away form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sudtirol Wins
1
Draws
3
Modena Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.2
Sudtirol1 – 1Modena
Modena0 – 0Sudtirol
Modena0 – 0Sudtirol
Sudtirol2 – 1Modena
Modena1 – 0Sudtirol
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sudtirolvs
Modena

Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.10
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 41.8%→Latest 41.9%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 49.7%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Sudtirol's 10 matches and 7 of Modena's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?