AEK vs Aris Head to Head, Prediction
Allwyn Arena
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.36
Draw
4.93
Away Win
8.06
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
AEK
Aris
B. Varga (L. Majer) ⚽
11'
Lovro Majer 🟨
27'
Lazaros Rota 🟨
40'
B. Varga (M. Gacinovic) ⚽
62'
R. Marin (L. Majer) ⚽
67'
A. Koita (M. Vitalis) ⚽
75'
Zini (P. Mantalos) ⚽
90'
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
21
Total Shots
7
10
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
AEK (4-4-2)
T. Strakosha
L. Rota
H. Moukoudi
F. Relvas
S. Pilio
L. Majer
M. Vitalis
R. Marin
M. Gacinovic
B. Varga
L. Jovic
Aris (4-2-3-1)
R. Velho
N. Fadiga
B. Sutalo
F. Jensen
O. Richards
T. Dele-Bashiru
U. Racic
B. Garre
M. Garcia
G. Gianniotas
T. Kadewere
Player Ratings ?
AEK
Lovro MajerM8.3
Barnabás VargaF8.3
Aboubakary KoitaF8.0
Aris
Sebastián PalaciosF7.3
Ricardo VelhoG6.9
Uroš RačićM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. AEK edge defence and head-to-head, Aris edge recent form, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Aris stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
AEK stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AEK stronger
HomeAway
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards AEK
AEK's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a AEK win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AEK win
Latest market chance 68.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
64.7% → 68.5%
+3.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
21.7% → 19.9%
−1.8 pts
Aris win
Latest market chance 11.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
13.6% → 11.6%
−2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
AEK
Draw
Aris
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AEKAris
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
3rd
2
Games Played
2
2.00
Points/Game
3.00
2.50
Goals/Game
2.50
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
17.2
Shots/Game
16.2
6.2
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
AEK at home (2 matches) vs Aris away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
4.50
Goals/Game
1.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AEK
Home form
W
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Aris
Away form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AEK Wins
3
Draws
2
Aris Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Aris1 – 1AEK
AEK1 – 0Aris
Aris0 – 0AEK
AEK4 – 0Aris
Aris1 – 2AEK
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AEKvs
Aris
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.90
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.1%→Latest 54.5%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.0%→Latest 46.7%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
8 of AEK's 10 matches and 8 of Aris's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?