Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.64
Draw
3.16
Away Win
2.96
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Erzurumspor
Samsunspor
Miguel Cardoso 🟨
18'
Elisha Owusu 🟨
33'
Miguel Cardoso ⚽
45'
64'
🟨 Samed Onur
Brandon Baiye 🟨
77'
86'
🟨 Emre Kılınç
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
8
Total Shots
8
2
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
5
9
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Erzurumspor (5-4-1)
Ertuğrul Taşkıran
Orhan Ovacıklı
Amar Gerxhaliu
Mustafa Yumlu
Nihad Mujakić
Guram Giorbelidze
Martín Rodríguez
Elisha Owusu
Brandon Baiye
Miguel Cardoso
Eren Tozlu
Samsunspor (4-3-3)
Okan Kocuk
Josafat Mendes
Strahinja Eraković
Gabriele Guarino
Logi Tomasson
Celil Yüksel
Elliot Watt
Samed Onur
Saikuba Jarju
Mohamed Bayo
Emre Kılınç
Player Ratings ?
Erzurumspor
Miguel CardosoM7.9
Amar GerxhaliuD7.5
Orhan OvacıklıD7.2
Samsunspor
Yalçın KayanM7.2
Strahinja ErakovićD7.0
Gabriele GuarinoD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Samsunspor
Samsunspor rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Erzurumspor edge defence, giving Samsunspor a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Samsunspor stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Samsunspor stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Erzurumspor slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Samsunspor stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Samsunspor have secured three wins from their last five away outings, whereas Erzurumspor have recorded just a solitary victory in that same span at home. Erzurumspor have found the net in two of their last five matches at home while also keeping a clean sheet on two occasions during that period. Samsunspor carry four players out and one player doubtful for the fixture. Samsunspor rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Erzurumspor hold a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2001. Over the 6-day comparison window, Erzurumspor's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points, while Samsunspor's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Samsunspor a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Samsunspor
Samsunspor's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Samsunspor win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Erzurumspor remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Erzurumspor win
Latest market chance 36.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.0% → 36.5%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.2% → 30.1%
+0.9 pts
Samsunspor win
Latest market chance 33.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
34.8% → 33.4%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Erzurumspor
Draw
Samsunspor
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ErzurumsporSamsunspor
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
15th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
0.67
0.33
Goals/Game
1.17
2.33
Conceded/Game
2.67
9.0
Shots/Game
13.2
2.5
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Erzurumspor at home (3 matches) vs Samsunspor away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
0.67
Goals/Game
0.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
67%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Erzurumspor
Home form
D
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Samsunspor
Away form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Erzurumspor Wins
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Erzurumspor1 – 2Samsunspor
Samsunspor2 – 2Erzurumspor
Samsunspor2 – 1Erzurumspor
Erzurumspor1 – 0Samsunspor
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Erzurumsporvs
Samsunspor
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.60
Goals conceded / game
2.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.0%→Latest 44.3%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.8%→Latest 50.8%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Erzurumspor's 10 matches and 4 of Samsunspor's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?