Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.30
Draw
3.09
Away Win
3.57
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Kocaelispor
Gaziantep
37'
🟨 Halil Dervişoğlu
B. Kutlu (G. Sousa) ⚽
56'
Gonçalo Sousa 🟨
63'
63'
🟨 Kacper Kozłowski
D. Agyei (B. Kutlu) ⚽
76'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
19
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
3
1
Corner Kicks
2
15
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Kocaelispor (4-3-3)
S. Oztasdelen
U. Yildiz
A. Dijksteel
E. Ortakaya
M. Haidara
Show
B. Kutlu
M. Susoho
G. Sousa
F. Aye
M. Altunbas
Gaziantep (4-1-4-1)
K. Tobiasz
L. Perez
A. Kizildag
M. Abena
K. Calhanoglu
U. Meleke
D. Sorescu
V. Gidado
A. Maxim
K. Kozlowski
H. Dervisoglu
Player Ratings ?
Kocaelispor
Berkan KutluM8.5
Dan AgyeiF8.5
Mahamadou SusohoM7.7
Gaziantep
Arda KızıldağD7.9
Alexandru MaximM7.3
Ulrich MelekeM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kocaelispor edge defence and head-to-head, Gaziantep edge attack, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Gaziantep stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Kocaelispor stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Kocaelispor slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gaziantep have recorded two victories from their last five away outings, while Kocaelispor have secured two wins and two draws in their most recent five home fixtures. At home, Kocaelispor have scored in three of their last five matches while also keeping three clean sheets during that same period. Both sides face squad selection challenges ahead of the match, with Kocaelispor and Gaziantep each having three players unavailable for selection. Gaziantep rate stronger on attack, while Kocaelispor rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while form is closely matched. Kocaelispor won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 15 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Gaziantep's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.5 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Kocaelispor's implied win probability has risen by 2.1 percentage points, while Gaziantep's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Gaziantep
Gaziantep's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Gaziantep win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Kocaelispor remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kocaelispor win
Latest market chance 41.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
40.8% → 41.8%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
28.0% → 30.8%
+2.8 pts
Gaziantep win
Latest market chance 27.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.2% → 27.4%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kocaelispor
Draw
Gaziantep
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
KocaelisporGaziantep
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
7th
5
Games Played
6
1.80
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.17
0.80
Conceded/Game
0.83
12.3
Shots/Game
13.0
4.0
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Kocaelispor at home (4 matches) vs Gaziantep away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.75
Goals/Game
1.25
0.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
100%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kocaelispor
Home form
D
D
L
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Gaziantep
Away form
L
L
L
W
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kocaelispor Wins
1
Draws
0
Gaziantep Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
Kocaelispor3 – 0Gaziantep
Gaziantep2 – 0Kocaelispor
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kocaelisporvs
Gaziantep
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
0.90
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.40
1/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
5/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.5%→Latest 40.8%−4.7 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.2%→Latest 47.8%−3.4 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Kocaelispor's 10 matches and 4 of Gaziantep's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?