Home / World Cup 2026 / Mexico vs South Africa

Mexico vs South Africa Head-to-Head — FIFA World Cup 2026

⚽ Group Stage, Match 1
Thursday 11 June 2026  ·  19:00 UTC  ·  Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Match Report

Match Events ?
9'J. Quinones (E. Lira)Mexico
17'🟨T. Mokoena South Africa
23'🟨B. Gutierrez Mexico
49'🟥Y. Sithole South Africa
67'R. Jimenez (R. Alvarado)Mexico
74'🟨N. Sibisi South Africa
84'🟥T. Zwane South Africa
90'🟥C. Montes Mexico
Match Statistics ?
Mexico
South Africa
61%
Possession
39%
4
Shots on Target
2
16
Total Shots
3
3
Corners
1
12
Fouls
11
1.41
xG
0.07
Player Ratings ?
Mexico
8.3Julián QuiñonesM
8.2Roberto AlvaradoM
7.9Raúl JiménezF
South Africa
6.7Jayden AdamsM
6.6Ronwen WilliamsG
6.3Khuliso MudauD
Starting Lineups ?
Mexico · 4-1-4-1
1GRaúl Rangel
15DIsrael Reyes
3DCésar Montes
5DJohan Vásquez
23DJesús Gallardo
6MErik Lira
25MRoberto Alvarado
26MBrian Gutiérrez
8MÁlvaro Fidalgo
16MJulián Quiñones
9FRaúl Jiménez
South Africa · 5-3-2
1GRonwen Williams
20DKhuliso Mudau
19DNkosinathi Sibisi
21DIme Okon
14DMbekezeli Mbokazi
6DAubrey Modiba
4MTeboho Mokoena
13MSiphephelo Sithole
23MJayden Adams
15FIqraam Rayners
9FLyle Foster

Predictions

Match Prediction ?
Favoured: Mexico
Expected: Mexico by 1–2 goals
Confidence: High
Mexico 73%Draw 19%South Africa 8%
xG: 1.96Expected goalsxG: 0.49

Mexico vs South Africa looks like a Mexico-favoured matchup based on our pre-tournament model. Mexico has the stronger overall edge according to our model, with Mexico by 1–2 goals. This prediction should be used as general match context rather than a guaranteed outcome.

Win Probability (Market) ?
68%
Mexico to Win
Home: 68%  Draw: 21%  Away: 11%
Model Rating Edge ?
Clear Edge
Mexico stronger
Mexico: 1590 (#13)  ·  South Africa: 1373 (#40)
H2H Record ?
2–1–1
Mexico leads
Avg 3.8 goals/game · 4 meetings
Mexico
South Africa
#1
Position ?
#4
3
Points ?
0
1W 0D 0L
Record ?
0W 0D 1L
2
Goals For ?
0
0
Goals Against ?
2
+2
Goal Diff
-2
#15
FIFA Rank ?
#60
3.0%
Win Prob ?
0.0%
W
Form ?
L

Head-to-Head History

Previous World Cup Meetings
0Mexico
1Draw
0South Africa
11 Jun 2010FIFA World CupSouth Africa1–1Mexico
Last 4 Meetings (All Competitions)
2Mexico
1Draw
1South Africa
11 Jun 2010World CupSouth Africa1–1Mexico
8 Jul 2005Gold CupSouth Africa2–1NMexico
7 Jun 2000USA CupMexico4–2NSouth Africa
6 Oct 1993FriendlyMexico4–0NSouth Africa
💡 Betting Angles
Key Angles for this Match
🔥High-scoring H2H history — these two average 3.8 goals across their last 4 meetings.
🎯Clear model favourite: Mexico at 73% win probability.
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