FIFA World Cup 2026 — Model Predictions
We rate all 48 World Cup teams using a model built on three inputs: current FIFA ranking points, recent international form (last 24 months, weighted so recent results count more), and World Cup history. Those ratings drive our match predictions, and a full tournament simulation produces the probabilities below.
The table is sorted by estimated win probability. Model is our ranking; Market is the bookmaker consensus. Where they differ by 3+ places you will see a ▲ green arrow (our model rates higher than the market) or a ▼ red arrow (market rates higher than our model) -- these are the teams worth examining for potential value.
Tournament Win Probabilities
| # | Team | Win % | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain Group H | 21.2% | 1 |
| 2 |  France Group I | 18.0% | 2 |
| 3 |  Argentina Group J | 15.4% | 3 |
| 4 |  Morocco Group C | 8.0% | 4 |
| 5 |  England Group L | 7.8% | 5 |
| 6 |  Germany Group E | 4.7% | 6 |
| 7 |  Portugal Group K | 4.3% | 7 |
| 8 |  Mexico Group A | 3.0% | 13 |
| 9 |  Netherlands Group F | 3.0% | 8 |
| 10 |  Brazil Group C | 2.6% | 9 |
| 11 |  Senegal Group I | 1.8% | 11 |
| 12 |  USA Group D | 1.6% | 17 |
| 13 |  Belgium Group G | 1.5% | 12 |
| 14 |  Croatia Group L | 1.5% | 10 |
| 15 |  Japan Group F | 0.9% | 14 |
| 16 |  Colombia Group K | 0.7% | 16 |
| 17 |  Austria Group J | 0.6% | 20 |
| 18 |  Switzerland Group B | 0.5% | 15 |
| 19 |  Australia Group D | 0.5% | 18 |
| 20 |  Algeria Group J | 0.4% | 19 |
| 21 |  Norway Group I | 0.4% | 25 |
| 22 |  Uruguay Group H | 0.3% | 23 |
| 23 |  South Korea Group A | 0.3% | 22 |
| 24 |  Turkey Group D | 0.3% | 21 |
| 25 |  Iran Group G | 0.2% | 26 |
| 26 |  Ecuador Group E | 0.2% | 24 |
| 27 |  Canada Group B | 0.1% | 30 |
| 28 |  Egypt Group G | 0.1% | 27 |
| 29 |  Tunisia Group F | 0.1% | 31 |
| 30 |  Panama Group L | 0.0% | 28 |
| 31 |  Uzbekistan Group K | 0.0% | 36 |
| 32 |  Czech Republic Group A | 0.0% | 33 |
| 33 |  DR Congo Group K | 0.0% | 29 |
| 34 |  Ivory Coast Group E | 0.0% | 34 |
| 35 |  Paraguay Group D | 0.0% | 32 |
| 36 |  Scotland Group C | 0.0% | 39 |
| 37 |  Iraq Group I | 0.0% | 40 |
| 38 |  Jordan Group J | 0.0% | 35 |
| 39 |  South Africa Group A | 0.0% | 37 |
| 40 |  Sweden Group F | 0.0% | 38 |
| 41 |  Cape Verde Group H | 0.0% | 42 |
| 42 |  Qatar Group B | 0.0% | 44 |
| 43 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina Group B | 0.0% | 45 |
| 44 |  Saudi Arabia Group H | 0.0% | 41 |
| 45 |  Ghana Group L | 0.0% | 43 |
| 46 |  Curaçao Group E | 0.0% | 46 |
| 47 |  New Zealand Group G | 0.0% | 47 |
| 48 |  Haiti Group C | 0.0% | 48 |
Predicted Group Standings
Teams ordered by model rank within each group. Qualify % shows the probability of finishing in the top 2 (or as one of the 8 best third-placed teams).